资本运营：基于Python实现的资本运作模拟

基于Python实现的一个简单的资本运营框架；
​企业生命周期演示：观察初创→成长→上市→并购全流程
​行业对比分析：不同行业的财务特征和估值差异
​资本运作策略：体验IPO定价、投资决策、并购整合等操作
​市场动态观察：通过仪表盘跟踪市场结构变化

"""
资本运营模拟教学系统（完整增强版）
功能：多公司模拟、IPO全流程、智能并购、交互投资
版本：4.0（教学旗舰版）
"""
import random
from dataclasses import dataclass
from typing import List, Dict, Optional, Tuple
from enum import Enum


# ========== 知识库模块 ==========
class KnowledgeBase:
    @staticmethod
    def explain(concept: str) -> str:
        """行业知识增强库"""
        concepts = {
            'IPO': (
                "📈 IPO全流程详解：\n"
                "1. 预路演（测试市场反应）\n"
                "2. 估值建模（DCF/可比公司法）\n"
                "3. 监管申报（SEC/FCA备案）\n"
                "4. 累计投标（价格发现）\n"
                "5. 挂牌交易（开盘价机制）"
            ),
            'M&A': (
                "🔄 并购整合策略：\n"
                "• 横向并购：扩大市场份额\n"
                "• 纵向并购：控制供应链\n"
                "• 混合并购：多元化经营\n"
                "案例：亚马逊收购Whole Foods实现零售业整合"
            )
        }
        return concepts.get(concept, "知识库暂未收录该词条")


# ========== 数据模型模块 ==========
class Industry(Enum):
    TECH = "科技"
    FINANCE = "金融"
    HEALTHCARE = "医疗"
    CONSUMER = "消费品"
    MANUFACTURING = "制造"


@dataclass
class FinancialReport:
    year: int
    revenue: float
    net_profit: float
    total_assets: float
    debt: float

    def display(self) -> str:
        """财务报告可视化"""
        return (
            f"{self.year}财务简报\n"
            f"├─ 营业收入: ${self.revenue / 1e6:.1f}M\n"
            f"├─ 净利润率: {self.net_profit / self.revenue * 100:.1f}%\n"
            f"└─ 资产负债率: {self.debt / self.total_assets * 100:.1f}%"
        )


class Company:
    def __init__(self, name: str, industry: Industry):
        self.name = name
        self.industry = industry
        self.is_public = False
        self.financials: List[FinancialReport] = []
        self.cash = random.randint(5_000_000, 5_000_000)  # 初始资金$5M-$20M
        self.ownership = {"创始人团队": 1.0}
        self.employees = random.randint(50, 500)

    def generate_report(self, year: int) -> FinancialReport:
        """行业特征财务模型"""
        industry_params = {
            Industry.TECH: {
                'rev_growth': random.uniform(0.3, 0.5),
                'margin': 0.25,
                'asset_turnover': 2.0
            },
            Industry.FINANCE: {
                'rev_growth': random.uniform(0.1, 0.2),
                'margin': 0.15,
                'asset_turnover': 0.5
            },
            Industry.HEALTHCARE: {
                'rev_growth': random.uniform(0.2, 0.3),
                'margin': 0.20,
                'asset_turnover': 1.2
            },
            Industry.CONSUMER: {
                'rev_growth': random.uniform(0.15, 0.25),
                'margin': 0.10,
                'asset_turnover': 1.5
            },
            Industry.MANUFACTURING: {
                'rev_growth': random.uniform(0.1, 0.15),
                'margin': 0.08,
                'asset_turnover': 0.8
            }
        }
        params = industry_params[self.industry]

        if self.financials:
            last_rev = self.financials[-1].revenue
            revenue = last_rev * (1 + params['rev_growth'])
        else:
            revenue = random.uniform(1e7, 5e7)

        net_profit = revenue * params['margin']
        total_assets = (revenue / params['asset_turnover'])

        report = FinancialReport(
            year=year,
            revenue=revenue,
            net_profit=net_profit,
            total_assets=total_assets,
            debt=total_assets * random.uniform(0.1, 0.3)
        )
        self.cash += net_profit
        self.financials.append(report)
        print(f"[{self.name}] {report.display()}")
        return report


# ========== 业务逻辑模块 ==========
class Underwriter:
    """承销商类"""

    def __init__(self, name: str):
        self.name = name
        self.deals_completed = 0

    def price_ipo(self, company: Company) -> Optional[float]:
        """IPO定价模型"""
        if not company.financials:
            return None

        latest = company.financials[-1]
        industry_multiples = {
            Industry.TECH: 25,
            Industry.FINANCE: 12,
            Industry.HEALTHCARE: 18,
            Industry.CONSUMER: 15,
            Industry.MANUFACTURING: 10
        }
        return latest.net_profit * industry_multiples.get(company.industry, 10)

    def execute_ipo(self, company: Company) -> str:
        """执行IPO流程"""
        valuation = self.price_ipo(company)
        if not valuation:
            return "IPO失败：无法定价"

        # 发行25%新股
        shares_issued = valuation * 0.25
        fee = shares_issued * 0.07

        # 更新公司状态
        company.cash += shares_issued
        company.is_public = True
        company.ownership["公众股东"] = 0.25
        for k in company.ownership:
            if k != "公众股东":
                company.ownership[k] *= 0.75

        self.deals_completed += 1
        return (
            f"🏛️ {self.name} 成功承销 {company.name} IPO！\n"
            f"├─ 发行估值: ${valuation / 1e6:.1f}M\n"
            f"├─ 募集资金: ${shares_issued / 1e6:.1f}M\n"
            f"└─ 承销费用: ${fee / 1e6:.1f}M"
        )


class VentureCapital:
    """风险投资机构"""

    def __init__(self, name: str, fund_size: float):
        self.name = name
        self.fund = fund_size
        self.portfolio = []

    def evaluate(self, company: Company) -> float:
        """估值模型（风险调整现值法）"""
        latest = company.financials[-1]
        discount_rates = {
            Industry.TECH: 0.4,
            Industry.FINANCE: 0.3,
            Industry.HEALTHCARE: 0.35,
            Industry.CONSUMER: 0.25,
            Industry.MANUFACTURING: 0.2
        }
        growth_rate = 0.2  # 假设行业平均增长率
        terminal_value = latest.net_profit * (1 + growth_rate) / (discount_rates[company.industry] - growth_rate)
        return terminal_value

    def invest(self, company: Company, amount: float) -> str:
        """分阶段投资逻辑"""
        pre_val = self.evaluate(company)
        post_val = pre_val + amount
        equity = amount / post_val

        if amount > self.fund:
            return f"❌ 投资失败：资金不足（可用：${self.fund / 1e6:.1f}M)"

        # 更新资金和股权
        self.fund -= amount
        company.cash += amount
        company.ownership[self.name] = equity

        # 稀释现有股东
        dilution = 1 - equity
        for k in company.ownership:
            if k != self.name:
                company.ownership[k] *= dilution

        self.portfolio.append(company)
        return (
            f"💼 {self.name} 投资 {company.name}\n"
            f"├─ 投资金额: ${amount / 1e6:.1f}M\n"
            f"├─ 占股比例: {equity * 100:.1f}%\n"
            f"└─ 投后估值: ${post_val / 1e6:.1f}M"
        )


# ========== 模拟系统模块 ==========
class CapitalSimulator:
    def __init__(self):
        self.companies = []
        self.banks = []
        self.vcs = []
        self.year = 2024

    def add_company(self, name: str, industry: Industry):
        """添加公司（行业均衡分布）"""
        self.companies.append(Company(name, industry))

    def init_default_entities(self):
        """初始化默认实体（公司数量翻倍）"""
        # 投行
        self.banks = [
            Underwriter("高盛"),
            Underwriter("摩根士丹利"),
            Underwriter("中信证券")
        ]

        # 风险投资
        self.vcs = [
            VentureCapital("红杉资本", 1e9),
            VentureCapital("软银愿景", 2e9),
            VentureCapital("淡马锡", 1.5e9)
        ]

        # 公司列表（数量增加）
        companies = [
            ("星海科技", Industry.TECH),
            ("云端医疗", Industry.HEALTHCARE),
            ("智造未来", Industry.MANUFACTURING),
            ("悦享消费", Industry.CONSUMER),
            ("银河金融", Industry.FINANCE),
            ("量子计算", Industry.TECH),
            ("精准医疗", Industry.HEALTHCARE),
            ("绿色制造", Industry.MANUFACTURING)
        ]
        for name, industry in companies:
            self.add_company(name, industry)

    def run_ipo_phase(self):
        """IPO阶段模拟"""
        candidates = [c for c in self.companies if not c.is_public]
        if not candidates:
            print("⚠️ 所有公司均已上市")
            return

        company = random.choice(candidates)
        underwriter = random.choice(self.banks)
        print(f"\n[IPO进程] {underwriter.execute_ipo(company)}")

    def run_vc_phase(self):
        """风险投资阶段"""
        if not self.vcs:
            return

        vc = random.choice(self.vcs)
        targets = [c for c in self.companies if not c.is_public]
        if not targets:
            print("⚠️ 无未上市投资标的")
            return

        target = random.choice(targets)
        investment = min(vc.fund * 0.2, 1e8)  # 单笔投资不超过$100M
        print(f"\n[私募市场] {vc.invest(target, investment)}")

    def run_ma_phase(self):
        """并购阶段模拟"""
        if len(self.companies) < 2:
            return

        acquirer, target = random.sample(self.companies, 2)
        if acquirer == target:
            return

        # 简单协同效应计算
        synergy = (acquirer.financials[-1].revenue + target.financials[-1].revenue) * 0.15
        acquirer.cash += target.cash
        self.companies.remove(target)
        print(
            f"\n[并购快讯] {acquirer.name} 收购 {target.name}\n"
            f"└─ 协同价值: ${synergy / 1e6:.1f}M"
        )

    def run_year(self):
        """年度模拟主循环"""
        print(f"\n{'=' * 30} {self.year}资本运营框架测试 {'=' * 30}")

        # 生成年度报告
        for co in self.companies:
            co.generate_report(self.year)

        # 各阶段模拟
        self.run_ipo_phase()
        self.run_vc_phase()
        self.run_ma_phase()

        self.year += 1


# ========== 交互模块 ==========
class InteractiveSimulator(CapitalSimulator):
    def show_dashboard(self):
        """实时数据仪表盘"""
        print("\n📊 市场全景:")
        print(f"上市公司: {sum(1 for c in self.companies if c.is_public)}")
        print(f"私募公司: {len(self.companies) - sum(1 for c in self.companies if c.is_public)}")
        print(f"活跃投行: {len(self.banks)}")
        print(f"VC机构: {len(self.vcs)}")

    def user_invest(self):
        """用户投资交互"""
        targets = [c for c in self.companies if not c.is_public]
        if not targets:
            print("⚠️ 当前无可投资公司")
            return

        print("\n可投资项目:")
        for i, co in enumerate(targets):
            print(f"{i + 1}. {co.name} ({co.industry.value})")

        choice = input("请选择编号（0跳过）: ").strip()
        if not choice.isdigit():
            print("⚠️ 输入无效")
            return

        idx = int(choice) - 1
        if idx < 0 or idx >= len(targets):
            return

        target = targets[idx]
        vc = self.vcs[0]  # 假设用户控制第一个VC

        while True:
            amount = input(f"投资金额（可用: ${vc.fund / 1e6:.1f}M）: ").strip()
            if not amount:
                print("⚠️ 跳过投资")
                return
            try:
                amount = float(amount) * 1e6
                if 0 < amount <= vc.fund:
                    break
                print(f"金额需在0-{vc.fund / 1e6:.1f}之间")
            except:
                print("请输入有效数字")

        print(f"\n[用户操作] {vc.invest(target, amount)}")

    def run_year(self):
        """带交互的年度运行"""
        super().run_year()
        self.show_dashboard()
        self.user_invest()


# ========== 运行示例 ==========
if __name__ == "__main__":
    sim = InteractiveSimulator()
    sim.init_default_entities()

    # 运行10年模拟
    for _ in range(10):
        sim.run_year()
        input("\n按回车继续下一年...")